01 · The opportunity

Launch got cheap. Doing anything up there didn’t.

The cost of reaching orbit has fallen roughly 36×, and is still falling toward ~$100/kg. The cost of moving, servicing, or recovering what’s already up there hasn’t budged, because every job today needs its own bespoke spacecraft. That gap is the opening: a shared, reusable swarm that makes every in-space action cheap.

Why now: three forces converging

Launch collapse

$54,500 → ~$1,500 per kg (Shuttle → Falcon 9), heading toward ~$100/kg with Starship. Below a cost threshold, servicing and reuse beat relaunch.

Congestion

10,000+ active satellites, 40,000 tracked objects, and 1.2M+ debris fragments now crowd orbit, with constellations filed to 42,000+.

Regulation

The FCC’s 5-year deorbit rule went live in 2024; ESA’s zero-debris target is 2030. Cleanup and disposal are now legal requirements.

23,000+ satellites are serviceable. Only ~3,800 will be serviced through 2032. The other ~19,000 are priced out, because servicing today means one custom vehicle per target. A reusable swarm drives cost-per-action down the same curve reusability drove launch, which turns latent demand into a real market. That expands the market rather than just competing for today’s. And customers already pay: ESA’s €86M ClearSpace-1, Astroscale’s ~$1B IPO, Starfish’s $160M+ in booked contracts.

The addressable market
TAM
$15–30B / yr

In-space operations by the mid-2030s: servicing, relocation, debris removal, and assembly.

SAM
$5–12B / yr

Missions where multi-robot coordination is the differentiator: large, uncooperative, or many-at-once targets.

SOM
$50–200M

Cumulative contracted revenue in our first five operational years, benchmarked to today’s servicing contracts.

How the market (and Stelaris) grows into it
Next 2 years · Prove it

Coordination + first mission

Demonstrate autonomous multi-robot coordination and a first servicing / relocation mission, the capability no incumbent has.

~5 years · Fleet

Servicing at scale

Fleet servicing and debris-sweep constellations that earn recurring revenue from relocation and removal under the deorbit mandates.

~10 years · Backbone

The logistics layer

As launch nears ~$100/kg, in-space assembly of large structures, the swarm as the backbone that lowers the cost of every action in orbit.

Sources: WEF & McKinsey, Space: The $1.8T Opportunity (2024) · NSR / Analysys Mason, In-Orbit Services · ESA Space Environment Report 2025 · FCC 5-year deorbit rule · Novaspace. Market ranges are analyst-derived and directional.